HINDSIGHT

How Bad Can It Get?

Set a worst-day limit for a real portfolio, then let the next real year test it. Count the breaches, and see what the days beyond your limit look like.

Five real portfolios of three S&P 500 stocks. Set a one-day 95% value-at-risk limit from last year's daily returns, then watch the next real year test it: how often it was broken, how far beyond it the bad days went, and how the textbook limit did.

About 3 minutes. A new puzzle every day, the same for everyone.

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